Round
Set-aside
Region
Your TB
Pool · winners · field
3.45MM · 4 · 64
Best case
70%
HCD stragglers withdraw
Base case
50%
Current field
Worst case
5%
+2 phantom top-tier entrants
Rank in set-aside
#4 of 7
Cutoff TB to win
0.2216
Beats / beaten by
3 / 3
Deal wins?
YES (At-Risk)
TB Gap Analysis
Your TB: 0.2216 · Rank 4 of 7
| To reach rank | Need TB | Δ from current |
|---|---|---|
| #1 | 0.7249 | +0.5033 |
| #2 | 0.3802 | +0.1586 |
| #3 | 0.2887 | +0.0671 |
Set-aside cascade · §10315
| # | Pool | Authority | Rank | Cutoff TB | Pool $ | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | At-Risk | §10315 | 4 / 7 | 0.2216 | 3,446,971 | Funded |
Rural subordination is live in this At-Risk field. §10315(d) admits a rural project to At-Risk only “if credits remain after awarding all eligible non-rural projects”. This flag is a proxy: it fires when any non-rural At-Risk filer is active, which is a weaker test than credits actually remaining, so treat it as an early warning rather than the rule.
§10315 grants no onward set-aside from this pool.
The 10315(i) geographic apportionment is a separate competition rather than a fall-through, and for a rural project 10315(c) and (d) open it only where the region "has had no other Eligible Projects for reservation within the current calendar year", and then only in the last round of the year. The field data carries neither condition, so the hop is not simulated.